Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.000257 0.000286 0.000318 0.000356 0.000398 0.000445 0.000500
2025-01-26 0.000202 0.000244 0.000295 0.000359 0.000438 0.000535 0.000662
2025-02-02 0.000175 0.000225 0.000288 0.000375 0.000491 0.000643 0.000860
2025-02-09 0.000150 0.000202 0.000271 0.000371 0.000513 0.000712 0.001014
2025-02-16 0.000133 0.000187 0.000261 0.000374 0.000543 0.000792 0.001195
2025-02-23 0.000119 0.000172 0.000249 0.000371 0.000562 0.000857 0.001360
2025-03-02 0.000108 0.000162 0.000242 0.000373 0.000588 0.000935 0.001557
2025-03-09 0.000099 0.000152 0.000233 0.000372 0.000607 0.001004 0.001749
2025-03-16 0.000087 0.000137 0.000217 0.000355 0.000598 0.001023 0.001855
2025-03-23 0.000081 0.000131 0.000212 0.000357 0.000621 0.001100 0.002079
2025-03-30 0.000078 0.000129 0.000214 0.000371 0.000667 0.001224 0.002414
2025-04-06 0.000071 0.000120 0.000204 0.000362 0.000669 0.001266 0.002588
2025-04-13 0.000064 0.000109 0.000189 0.000344 0.000653 0.001273 0.002698
2025-04-20 0.000060 0.000105 0.000186 0.000348 0.000681 0.001372 0.003034
2025-04-27 0.000058 0.000104 0.000189 0.000364 0.000735 0.001538 0.003558
2025-05-04 0.000054 0.000099 0.000183 0.000360 0.000747 0.001613 0.003877
2025-05-11 0.000051 0.000095 0.000180 0.000363 0.000775 0.001728 0.004323
2025-05-18 0.000048 0.000091 0.000174 0.000360 0.000788 0.001809 0.004696
2025-05-25 0.000046 0.000088 0.000172 0.000362 0.000814 0.001925 0.005194
2025-06-01 0.000043 0.000084 0.000168 0.000361 0.000832 0.002025 0.005666
2025-06-08 0.000040 0.000078 0.000158 0.000345 0.000810 0.002019 0.005822
2025-06-15 0.000038 0.000076 0.000155 0.000347 0.000835 0.002139 0.006400
2025-06-22 0.000037 0.000075 0.000158 0.000360 0.000891 0.002357 0.007351